Analysis of the 2024 General Election and Its Implications

Republicans outperformed expectations in the 2024 General Election, with a decisive victory for President-elect Donald Trump and a larger-than-anticipated Senate majority (currently 53 to 45). Control of the House depends on the outcome of a handful of races that may not be called for days or weeks, but the most likely outcome appears to be Republicans retaining control with a majority of a few seats (Republicans currently hold 211 seats in the next Congress, Democrats have won 199, and 25 seats have not yet determined a winner).

If Republicans control the White House and both chambers of Congress, President-elect Trump and congressional Republicans will have two fast-track paths to pushing through transformational changes over the objections of Democrats in the minority. First, Republicans will have the power to use the Congressional Review Act to rescind regulations issued toward the end of the Biden administration; President Trump and congressional Republicans rescinded 16 Obama-era regulations in the first year of Trump’s first term. Second, President-elect Trump and a unified Republican Congress will surely use the budget reconciliation process to fast-track tax and spending reforms in 2025. Conversely, if Democrats manage to win control of the House, it is hard to imagine what Congressional Review Act legislation could pass both chambers, and it would be almost impossible for the chambers to agree on a budget reconciliation process. In addition, a Democratic House would likely focus on aggressive oversight of the Trump administration.

Once control of the House is determined, Arnold & Porter will publish a full election analysis on the implications of the election. We will also host a post-election webinar on November 12. In the meantime, we provide a high-level overview based on what we know now.

Trump Administration Priorities

On the campaign trail, President-elect Trump outlined several priorities for his second administration. While some of his priorities require congressional action, like extending expiring provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), President-elect Trump has several policy priorities that he may be able to implement in whole or in part via Executive Orders or regulatory action. Some of these priorities include imposing across-the-board tariffs of up to 20% on imported goods (60% tariffs on goods imported from China), rolling back Biden-era regulations, and reining in the civil service. President Trump’s previous term was hindered by a poor transition process; this time, his team is focused on having a smooth transition process that enables his new administration to be ready to take decisive policy actions on day one. The transition team plans to present candidate options for President-elect Trump’s cabinet before Thanksgiving and more than 300 executive orders have been drafted for his consideration.

Senate Leadership Outlook

Fresh off the campaign trail, Senate Republicans are slated to elect a new party leader next week. Sens. John Thune (R-SD), John Cornyn (R-TX), and Rick Scott (R-FL) are running to replace Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), who has served as the leader of the Senate Republican Conference since 2007. While Sens. Thune and Cornyn are frontrunners, dynamics could shift if President-elect Trump or Vice President-elect Vance publicly support one of those candidates. Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY) is running unopposed to become the majority whip. Sens. Tom Cotton (R-AR) and Joni Ernst (R-IA) are running to replace Sen. Barrasso in the third ranking leadership spot as conference chair. The outcome of these races will shape the direction of the Senate Republican Conference.

On the Democratic side, Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) will serve as the Senate Minority Leader and Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) will continue serving as the minority whip. The policy chair position, the third ranking leadership member, is open, with Sens. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) and Cory Booker (D-NJ) vying for the spot. Senate Democrats will likely hold their leadership elections in early December.

House Leadership Outlook

If Republicans hold the House, we expect the existing leadership team to remain in place for the next Congress. That would include Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA), Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN), and Conference Chair Elise Stefanik (R-NY). House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) is expected to become Speaker should the Democrats flip the House, but even in the minority we expect the Democratic leadership team to remain the same: Jeffries, Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-MA), and Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar (D-CA).

Lame-Duck Outlook

The final weeks of the 118th Congress will be shaped by the 2024 election results. Returning on November 12, members will have five weeks to consider must-pass legislation. Aside from must-pass legislation, expect Senate Democrats to focus on judicial nominations. There are two key decisions for lawmakers to consider: how long to fund the federal government and whether to address the debt limit this Congress. Should Republicans retain control of the House in the 119th Congress, House Republicans may forego cutting a spending deal or passing non-essential legislation until next Congress. Regardless of which party wins control of the House, Congress will need to pass the Fiscal Year 2025 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) and fund the federal government before the December 20, 2024 deadline.

Expect short-term extensions of the Farm Bill, flood insurance, and telehealth. There are also several bipartisan initiatives that Congress could attach to the NDAA or an end of the year package, including legislation related to disaster relief, artificial intelligence, China, health extenders, pharmacy benefit manager reform, permitting reform, and tax extenders.

Conclusion

The 2024 election results herald a period of significant policy changes and legislative activity. Observers and stakeholders should prepare for a dynamic and transformative political environment in the coming years. Join our webinar on November 12 for a deep dive on the election and policy outlook for the next Congress. Once control of the House is determined, be on the lookout for Arnold & Porter’s full election analysis outlining implications of the recent election.

© Arnold & Porter Kaye Scholer LLP 2024 All Rights Reserved. This Advisory is intended to be a general summary of the law and does not constitute legal advice. You should consult with counsel to determine applicable legal requirements in a specific fact situation.